Overpopulation Doomsday vs. Cornucopian Singularity? Has Malthus Been Oversold by Doomers?

Doomseekers--many of them journalists, authors, and celebrities--wallow in "peak oil", "global warming catastrophe", and other harrowing visions of worldwide doom. Ray Kurzweil and singularitarians, on the other hand, say the world is on the verge of widespread prosperity and abundance such as never before seen.

NYT blogger John Tierney weighs the question and decides that doomsday has been wildly oversold. Tierney points to this recent NYT article about Malthus vs. reality and decides that Kurzweil's cornucopian singularity--while not guaranteed--is more likely than the Malthusian vision of widespread famine and poverty.

Who is right--doomers or Kurzweil? It depends upon where you live. If you live in a nation or region with a very low average population IQ, you are apt to see many examples of the activity pictured in the photo above--subsisting on castoff and detritus. Generations of philanthropists, NGOs, religious charities, government aid and assistance, etc. have been lavished upon countries such as Haiti only to see them sink into violence and deprivation time and again. Below a certain point, average IQ determines what a society's destiny will be.

Nations of high IQ, such as Japan, South Korea, China, and European countries, have the potential of creating cornucopian worlds in the near future, if the political classes are sufficiently constrained. North Korea, Mao's China, the late USSR, etc. are examples of high IQ societies that allowed despotic governments to lead them into widespread misery and shortages of food and comforts.

When one looks at the margins--where reasonably high IQ societies are being swamped by lower IQ immigration--one finds that a good future is not assured. In a high IQ democracy, the deluge of low IQ voters can distort government policies away from the enlightenment Anglospheric traditions, toward more tribalistic policies that lead to societal fragmentation. When that happens, the more mobile and educated among the young will think about emigrating to greener pastures. Such emigration has the effect of speeding the transition from first world to third world, from high IQ society to low IQ society.

Tierney is right that for high IQ societies with moderate governments and controlled immigration, the cornucopia of Kurzweil is more likely than the mass starvation and overpopulation of Malthus and his modern-day disciples. But where in the world today can one find moderate governments of high IQ societies with strictly controlled immigration? The leading candidates for US President in the November elections are both seen as soft on illegal immigration from the third world.

A cornucopian first world would provide benefits to a Malthusian third world. Yet the lower the average IQ in the third world nation or region, the more difficult it will be to prevent widespread poverty, hunger, and disease within that region or country. Of course, if IQ remains the "one whose name you must not say aloud," not even think it!, then Malthus will have plenty of opportunity to laugh from his grave.

The world can support 30 billion persons of high IQ, who will behave responsibly and intelligently within the complex ecology. But just a few million low IQ persons can create a veritable hell on earth in the many urban jungles of mindless violence that the planet currently sports.

Intelligent and educated people breed significantly less than unintelligent and uneducated people. (see graphics world IQ map here and world fertility map here) But IQ is up to 80% heritable. Executive function--even more important to future success than IQ--may be even more heritable than IQ. The Flynn effect cannot change that. Advanced childhood education programs to enhance executive function and short-term memory cannot change that.

It is one thing to point out that Earth has abundant resources if humans will only act responsibly and use their innate ingenuity to do so. It is quite another thing to go on and face the problem fully, in all its dysphoric complexity. In the context of working toward a cornucopian future, widespread stupidity is a dysfunctional trait that not only individuals can possess, but also populations. That sad but critical fact must be addressed.

Fortunately, dysgenic trends can be addressed without taking unthinkably nightmarish and draconian measures. But without taking the first step of facing the issue, Malthus' chances for being right remain in play --for large parts of the world. That is what the term "a fractured singularity" means. Mere islands of post-humanity growing unevenly out of the developed world.

Anyone able to prevent large scale warfare during that sensitive transitional stage will deserve a Nobel Peace Prize, for once.

Update: This NYT article about a revolution in rice-growing appears to point at least in the general direction of cornucopia. Add to that all the other agricultural, biomedical, energy, and manufacturing revolutions, and the doomer point of view is definitely coming under siege.

[edited and updated since first published]