20 May 2008

Europe's Problems: No Rescue Likely This Time

Europe's problems continue to grow, and this time it is unlikely that Europe will be rescued by any outside party. The best to be hoped, perhaps, is that Europe will not start any more continent-wide wars--hot or cold, trade wars or real wars. Europe needs to begin cleaning up the mess she has made before things truly go downhill. First, the demographic time bomb--a large portion of which is the exploding populations of intolerant, potentially violent Muslim immigrants.
* Discrimination against other religions (with special emphasis on the rising European phenomenon of Islamic anti-Semitism), outlooks (inc. atheism) and lifestyles;
* Discrimination and violence against women (esp. wives and “disobedient” daughters);
* Discrimination and violence against homosexuals;
* Threats of violence in any form and for whatever alleged “offense” or “insult” (e.g. drawing cartoons, making documentaries, writing books);
* Apology or justification for all of the above.

It is essential to focus on the despicable acts themselves, and then drawing the direct line to the commands of Islam’s scripture and its founder __Source

Economic problems--especially a coming loss of purchasing power and productivity--also sit dark and heavy on the landscape.
Across Europe, people in the middle layer of the labor force - from office workers, civil servants and skilled laborers to low-level managers - are coping with a growing sense that they are being pushed to the margins like never before, as a combination of rising costs and stagnant wages erodes their purchasing power.

Prices for basic goods from gas to milk are rising sharply, outpacing pay rises linked to official rates of inflation. Families that once maintained pleasant lifestyles afforded by two incomes find the rise in costs - which have accelerated worldwide in the past year - has pushed them to the tipping point. __Source

Problems of stagflation are striking families all across Europe:
“When I started working at 23, I earned almost the same wage that I earn now,” said María Salgado, a 37-year-old director of television documentaries living in Madrid. Fourteen years ago, her monthly salary of about 1,200 euros ($1,873), bankrolled a full social life.

No longer. “The well-to-do middle class has become the tight middle class,” she said. “I’m surprised we haven’t started a revolution.”

... “I look at people on the bus and they seem sad and beaten down,” said Ms. Di Pietro, referring to Italy’s malaise. “We’re 40 years old. We should be feeling more combative, but really all we feel is frustrated.”

Some European governments are promising relief, but their ability to curb inflation or raise pay is limited. __Source

And so the Europeans who can read the tea leaves, are choosing emigration more and more.
The number of emigrants leaving the Netherlands and Germany has already surpassed the number of immigrants moving in. One does not have to be prophetic to predict, like Henryk Broder, that Europe is becoming Islamic. Just consider the demographics. The number of Muslims in contemporary Europe is estimated to be 50 million. It is expected to double in twenty years. By 2025, one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families. Today Mohammed is already the most popular name for new-born boys in Brussels, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and other major European cities.

...Some of the people I meet in the U.S. are particularly worried about the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe. They are correct when they fear that anti-Semitism is also on the rise among non-immigrant Europeans. The latter hate people with a fighting spirit. Contemporary anti-Semitism in Europe (at least when coming from native Europeans) is related to anti-Americanism. People who are not prepared to resist and are eager to submit, hate others who do not want to submit and are prepared to fight. They hate them because they are afraid that the latter will endanger their lives as well. In their view everyone must submit. __Source
But they are that way because this is what they have been taught. All their friends think and talk the same, they are living in an echo chamber. Reality is soon to come crashing down upon their heads, all the same.

For most people living in North America and the extended Anglosphere, Europe is the source of their ancestors. Europe is the natural ally for North America, and has been throughout much of the past century. Many North Americans have died to ensure the freedom of Europe from tyrannies of several stripes.

In the long run, Europe should remain a natural ally for the Anglosphere. It will be necessary for a more sustainable stance toward third world immigration to be adopted--to prevent the almost inevitable deluge of religious violence sweeping toward Europe from Muslim lands. It will be necessary for Europeans to find better sources for a future work force than they have found recently--either breed them or entice them in. Europe will have to take a more realistic attitude toward her own defense. She cannot rely on old, despised allies indefinitely in that regard.

If Europe fails to face her demographic, economic, and security problems, it is unlikely that she can expect outside assistance, this time.

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9 Comments:

Blogger Markku said...

The number of Muslims in contemporary Europe is estimated to be 50 million

It's more like 20 million.

France: about 4-5 million
The UK: about 1.6 million
Germany: about 3 million
Sweden: about 0.45 million
The Netherlands: about 1 million

Except for maybe Spain no other EU member state has a Muslim minority topping one million in number. Eastern Europe (except for Russia and Bosnia is practically empty of Muslims). No way is the total number anywhere near 50 million.

How exactly is the US economy signifigantly better than that of the EU? For one thing, EU member states are not up to their eyeballs in debt with the currency in free fall like USA. You're quoting case studies from Italy, the probably the single worst economically performing EU-15 nation. The UK and the Nordic countries are MUCH better off than that.

Neither is the US attracting high quality human capital for the most part: illiterate peasants from Latin America whose children do terribly in school and contribute to a growing gang problem.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2008  
Blogger IConrad said...

Neither is the US attracting high quality human capital for the most part: illiterate peasants from Latin America whose children do terribly in school and contribute to a growing gang problem. There's also a continuing strong immigration of educated asians.

How exactly is the US economy signifigantly better than that of the EU? For one thing, EU member states are not up to their eyeballs in debt with the currency in free fall like USA. You're quoting case studies from Italy, the probably the single worst economically performing EU-15 nation. The UK and the Nordic countries are MUCH better off than that. Europe is hemorrhaging funds just as badly as is the US, if not worse.

But empirically speaking, the US economy is simply superior to that of Europe as a whole. Why? Well, that would be because, when you compare the International Money Fund, the World Bank, and the Central Intelligence Agencies' rankings of PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, the US is either 8th, 5th, or 7th respectively with only the nations of Qatar, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Brunei, Singapore, and Cyprus -- the supermajority of the above are Flag-of-Convenience ports by the way, which means they get their GDP artificially inflated by economic activity occurring elsewhere (such as, primarily, the US) -- with the overall average of individual European countries ranging in around the UK's 22/16/21. The US's measured PPP-adjusted per-capita GDP is, according to the CIA, $46,000. The CIA is the only institution of the three to have measured the EU's PPP-adjusted GDP-per capita, and what was that number? 32,900. Now, given the EU's population of 490,426,060 and the US's population of 301,139,947, that means that there is 16% more economic activity overall occurring within the EU. But the EU also has 67% larger a population.

Ergo; the US's economy is //much// stronger than that of the EU's.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Yes, it is very difficult to get a true picture of illegal immigration.

In Europe, it is the differential birthrates that are particularly troublesome. Europeans breed at only half replacement, whereas Muslim immigrants may breed up to 4 to 5 times replacement. Generous welfare benefits allotted to multiple wives of polygamous Muslim men allow rapid population growth within that sub-sector.

The relative health of industrial economies necessarily changes as the economies pass through the inevitable cycles of capitalist economies. Unfortunately the long-term signs for Europe are particularly ominous.

So far, the high value emigrants out of the EU tend to go mainly to the places where the venture capital goes. EU countries are pursuing some particularly disastrous environmental policies which will take a huge bite out of future enterprise there.

High value emigrant researchers go to where the research funds are. Generally that is not in the EU countries.

More people in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and a few other European countries are beginning to consider the unthinkable--emigration. It has happened before, for perhaps less valid reasons.

Much of the European population appears not to have any fight left, at least not in regard to the actual dangers they face.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2008  
Blogger Markku said...

In Europe, it is the differential birthrates that are particularly troublesome. Europeans breed at only half replacement, whereas Muslim immigrants may breed up to 4 to 5 times replacement.

You've got your numbers wrong again. The completeted fertility of European women is more than one. It's around 1.5 (varying between above replacement in Iceland to about 1.3 in the former Communist block). Muslim women in Europe certainly don't give birth to 8-10 children, on average, during their reproductive lives. It's more like 3-4 or between 1.5 times and twice replacement.

White Americans don't have any more children than White Europeans. It's the third world immigrants, Blacks, and Hispanics who account for the at replacement level fertility of the USA.

Latin American illegal immigrants are slowly but surely turning the USA into a Mexico. Sure, that is better than being turned into Eurabia but only because Mexico is not Islamic. But Mexico, too, is corrupt to boot, and is, in addition, infested with criminal gangs that openly challenge the government in some parts of Northern Mexico.

It's the White European civilization that is in retreat regardless of whether in happens in North America, Europe, or even Australia.

But you're not taking the Singularity into account in your scenarios. It makes predicting the human condition in any part of the world beyond 2050 rather pointless.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Yes, four times replacement would be a bit much, even for a "fresh from the wadi" 15 year old immigrant child bride. Not inconceivable, but probably an outrider. ;-)

Twice replacement is close to my intent. (I was thinking of 4-5 children per woman, rather than 4-5 X replacement)

Spain and Italy are very near half replacement rate. Most Eastern European rates are well below 1.5 per.

The US has several regions and sub-populations of European-derived citizens with birthrates well above replacement. As you probably know, large city dwellers tend to have fewer children--for many reasons.

The worldwide trend is toward more city dwellers and fewer country dwellers, so fewer children. Again, within the US and Canada, there are distinct Euro-derived sub-populations that are bucking that trend.

No, I won't take the "singularity" into account, since it is after all an abstract idea that is subject to many contravening and modifying forces.

Latin American (not just Mexican) immigrants to the US, for the most part, wish to have the same opportunities that other Americans have--unlike Muslims to Europe who do actually wish to convert Europe to a Muslim land any way possible.

As many parallels as may exist between the Euro populations in different parts of the world, the prospects are distinctly different.

Tuesday, 20 May, 2008  
Blogger Jack Lacton said...

Markku,

The official figure in France is 4-5 million but unofficially it exceeds 10 million, which blows at least one of your numbers out.

Thursday, 22 May, 2008  
Blogger Barba Rija said...

You show your true colors here, al fin. Your nitpicking habilities are truly amazing. I can only wonder why do you do such furtuitous and cheap vacuous thinking.

The answer is obvious. You hate europe and love america. Well, by just looking at the falling dollar, the mcmansion bomb, your health system, your transportation system, your suburban sprawl and even, yikes, your IQ, I can't really understand how on earth you could be so bearish on europe.

USA empire is perhaps gazing at its downfall. It won't be a steep fall. It probably will take some 50 years for an american to realize that his country is not the best of the world at all... some 50 years later than all of the other nations, I'm afraid.

Thursday, 22 May, 2008  
Blogger Max said...

Let's not turn this into a Europe vs. America thread. Both have their problems.

Regarding demographics, it is heartening that tfrs have begun to climb in Russia and Germany, the two heaviest hitters, demographically speaking, in Europe. Little Estonia has seen an upswing too, from about 1.3 to nearly 1.7, but there's only so much those guys can do. :-)

Italy is stuck at the bottom, but they also aren't going to be taking in huge numbers of immigrants any time soon.

Thursday, 22 May, 2008  
Blogger al fin said...

Jack: It is almost impossible to get to the true figures.

Marc: Yes, the latest fertility figures from most Euro countries do show improvement. But how much of that comes from immigrant birthings? Hard to say. Moscow is 1/3 muslim and rising quickly due to differential birthrates.

Markku: Yes, I have been pushing your buttons just a bit. Europeans are incredibly smug within their precarious situation. A true friend would do no less than to suggest that they look to their backs, rather than snidely to their sides.

Thursday, 22 May, 2008  

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“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act” _George Orwell

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